Articles by Lance Roberts
- Market Intelligence
Wall Street’s 20% Bear Market Rule Is Breaking Down in Modern Markets
When prices fell by 20%, they often broke the market’s longer-term trend. A decline of that magnitude carried real information.
- Active Insights
SpaceX Mania Meets a New Fed Chair: The Market Risks Investors Can’t Ignore
Make no mistake. The SpaceX IPO will be enormous, and the company is one of the most impressive of our generation.
- Market Intelligence
Bond Market Alarm Bells Ring Again as Yields Hit One-Year Highs
After 30 years of watching market cycles, the pattern in this setup is more familiar than most commentary suggests.
- Market Intelligence
Software Stocks May Be Preparing for a Powerful Comeback Against Semiconductors
Some political pundits think that Iran holds important negotiating cards versus the US if it can control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Research
Buffett Cash Hoard: Why $397 Billion Sits On The Sidelines
It earned roughly four to five percent in Treasury bills while the S&P 500 ripped through three of its best consecutive years in modern history.
- Research
Semiconductor Stocks Have Entered Dangerous Parabolic Territory
The chart is now textbook parabolic. And parabolic charts almost never end politely.
- Market Intelligence
Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?
When looking at any graph comparing two instruments, as we have below, it’s always tempting to tell a story based on one of the two securities.
- Market Intelligence
Wall Street’s Earnings Forecasts Just Turned Bullish
Q1 was a genuinely strong quarter. Margins are real. Cash flow is real. The broadening is real. None of that is in dispute.
- Market Intelligence
Everyone Is Long Commodities… and That’s Exactly the Problem
After three decades of managing money, I have learned to be THE most skeptical of the trades that feel the most inevitable.
- Active Insights
The Index Trap? How AI Could Break Passive Investing’s Winning Streak
that would reverse the trend over the last two decades, in which investors increasingly relied on passive investment strategies.
- Market Intelligence
Market Correction Risk Is Stacking Fast Into Summer
It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.
- Market Intelligence
S&P Earnings Record May Be A Warning
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high Friday, capping a week in which the market did something remarkable: it largely stopped caring about Iran.
- Research
A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind
In the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills
- Market Intelligence
The Dollar’s Funeral Keeps Getting Rescheduled
Flows make markets. Right now, the flows are still pointing home — and the AI cycle means they likely will for some time.
- Market Intelligence
U.S. Government Debt Is Not a Roman Empire Story
Government debt is not what the doom crowd thinks it is, and the historical comparisons they love most have almost nothing in common
- Research
Meme-Style Squeeze Sends Avis Budget Soaring While Risks Stack Beneath Surface
While CAR can certainly go higher, the move is not sustainable. The reason is quite simply that CAR’s fundamentals are horrendous.
- Market Intelligence
18% Drop. Two-Week Recovery. Most Investors Missed It
Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now.
- Market Intelligence
Q1 Earnings Are Here: Is This Rally Real—or Ready to Crack?
The traders who will get destroyed in this environment are the ones who fade every rally out of fear and chase every selloff into panic.
- Market Intelligence
Investors Are Underestimating This Oil Shock Risk
The appeal of that thesis. The disruption is genuinely unprecedented. Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG now sit stranded behind a military blockade
- Research
Investors Ignore AI IPO Surge at Their Own Risk
When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year.
- Market Intelligence
The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?
The answer, based on every technical and macro lens I use, points heavily toward the latter.
- Market Intelligence
Markets Are Slipping: What Consecutive Weekly Losses Signal Now
Following five consecutive weekly declines, the market’s bounce this week could continue for a bit longer.
- Market Intelligence
Stock Market Breadth Collapse Signals More Than Headlines Are Telling You
More than 200 companies are in their own private bear markets, even as the index itself is not.
- Research
Subprime 2.0? The Hidden Risks Lurking Inside Private Credit
That is why we continue to underweight risk for now until we have better clarity about the future.
- Market Intelligence
Unemployment Crossing Key Threshold Sparks Recession Fears and Market Risk
As we circle, the unemployment rate is now above the moving average. Albert’s comment alongside his graph is as follows
- Market Intelligence
Oil Price Surge Sparks Inflation Fears—but This Isn’t the 1970s
Supply shortages and associated high oil prices are likely temporary, unlike during the longer-lasting embargo and Iranian revolution noted above.
- Market Intelligence
Corporate Debt Slices up Record Issuance as Market Volatility Surges
This strategic shift has pushed the average number of pieces per deal to an all-time high of 3.3.
- Market Intelligence
S&P Just Broke 200-DMA – Here’s What Investors Should Do Now
There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks.
- Market Intelligence
The CDX Is Flashing Red: What Credit Spreads Know That Stocks Don’t
There is no guarantee this time ends the same way as 2008, 2015, or 2022. Markets can and do defy patterns.
- Market Intelligence
Global Investors Hedge Against Risk, Not Against U.S. Dollar
The data tells a more nuanced, and arguably more important, story. One that investors ignore in favor of the simpler narrative
- Research
Gold vs Cash Debate Gets New Twist as Money Supply Trends Shift
Over the six years Oliver highlights, GDP growth has slightly outpaced the M2 money supply.
- Market Intelligence
War and Treasury Yields: Oil, Inflation, and Market Reality
It is wrong more than right, for reasons that have very little to do with the conflict itself, as shown, yields tend to rise about 60% of the time.
- Market Intelligence
Oil’s Next Move Could Rattle Markets
The next two weeks will determine whether this is a sharp shock with a clean resolution or the beginning of a longer repricing cycle.
- Market Intelligence
Dollar Dominance Isn’t Ending — Stablecoins May Strengthen It
In other words, it’s not the dollar losing value; it’s the economy expanding.
- Market Intelligence
Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation is gaining popularity and merits discussion.
- Market Intelligence
Are Credit Spreads Warning of a Market Shake-Up?
Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the more liquid corporate debt markets.
