Michael P. Lebowitz

PA The AI Bubble Warning Wall Street Doesn’t Want to Hear

The AI Bubble Warning Wall Street Doesn’t Want to Hear

Given the strong correlation between oil prices and CPI, the type of normalization could profoundly reduce CPI and, with it, sharply reduce bond yields.

PA SpaceX Targets Up to $2 Trillion IPO Valuation With Starlink Driving Profit Surge

SpaceX Targets Up to $2 Trillion IPO Valuation With Starlink Driving Profit Surge

SpaceX filed its securities registration with the SEC and is now set to conduct its IPO on or around June 12th.

PA AI Infrastructure Spending Is Becoming a Major Driver of US Economic Growth

AI Infrastructure Spending Is Becoming a Major Driver of US Economic Growth

Let’s open the door to our economy to better appreciate how AI is currently impacting it and how it may change in the future.

PA S&P 500 Surge Masks Weak Breadth as Options Flow and Gamma Drive Price Action

S&P 500 Surge Masks Weak Breadth as Options Flow and Gamma Drive Price Action

Similarly, while the broad market indexes have performed well, the bulk of the gains are coming from a relatively small handful of companies.

PA Intel’s 200% AI Surge: Is Wall Street Pricing In 2028 Already?

Intel’s 200% AI Surge: Is Wall Street Pricing In 2028 Already?

Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.

PA Labor Market Signals Are Breaking From History Ahead of the Next Jobs Report

Labor Market Signals Are Breaking From History Ahead of the Next Jobs Report

Declines in temporary help services employment preceded the last three recessions by 6 to 12 months in each case.

PA Nvidia Losing Leadership as AMD and Intel Surge

Nvidia Losing Leadership as AMD and Intel Surge

. NVDA is now the laggard within its own sector, an unfamiliar position for a stock that has effectively been the market for the last 24 months.

PA AI Spending Boom Meets Market Reality: Alphabet Wins While Meta and Microsoft Get Repriced

AI Spending Boom Meets Market Reality: Alphabet Wins While Meta and Microsoft Get Repriced

The market isn’t punishing AI spending. It is demanding receipts that justify the magnitude of AI spending.

PA Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?

Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?

The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones.

PA Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind

Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind

Regarding breadth, consider that despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, only 65% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages

PA Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns

Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns

The private credit tremors started with the bankruptcies in the auto sector — Tricolor and First Brands.

PA Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets

Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets

The concern, however, is forward-looking. Sentiment doesn’t just measure how people feel; at times it can shape how they spend.

PA Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?

Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?

As a result, some people think that recent rumblings in private credit may be a precursor to a new financial crisis.

PA AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point

AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash.

PA Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic

Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic

Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an outcome by how easily a vivid example comes to mind.

PA AI Could Supercharge Growth—or Trigger a Job Market Crisis

AI Could Supercharge Growth—or Trigger a Job Market Crisis

While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions.

PA LENDX Faces Massive Redemptions Amid Private Credit Concerns

LENDX Faces Massive Redemptions Amid Private Credit Concerns

The Stone Ridge Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund LENDX is the latest to face liquidity pressure amid growing concerns about private credit.

PA S&P 500 Calm Masks Deep Sector Turbulence

S&P 500 Calm Masks Deep Sector Turbulence

Another confirmation of the wide dispersion of returns in the constituents of the S&P 500 and yet relatively calm trading in the index itself.

PA $1.2 Trillion Risk Building Beneath Markets Could Force Fed’s Hand

$1.2 Trillion Risk Building Beneath Markets Could Force Fed’s Hand

The Fed has a history of cutting rates and boosting liquidity when the labor market and inflation levels don’t necessitate action.

PA Real Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion

Real Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion

A passive investment environment is oftentimes agnostic to valuations, blurring the lines between traditional investment styles like value and growth.

PA Oil Curve Signals Short-Term Spike, Not Lasting Shock

Oil Curve Signals Short-Term Spike, Not Lasting Shock

In the context of the current Iran conflict, the oil curve is signaling that the short-term spike is unlikely to last.

PA Liquidity Risks, Collateral Woes, and March Market Momentum

Liquidity Risks, Collateral Woes, and March Market Momentum

Liquidity can mask risk for long periods, but once confidence in collateral is questioned, leverage works in reverse with astonishing speed.

PA Dollar Debasement or Speculative Bubble? Gold, Bitcoin, and Market Signals

Dollar Debasement or Speculative Bubble? Gold, Bitcoin, and Market Signals

Thus, the question we raise is whether this is the right time for gold holders to swap for bitcoin.

PA Alphabet’s Rare 2126 Bond Issue Meets Speculative Energy Surge and Job Revisions Shock

Alphabet’s Rare 2126 Bond Issue Meets Speculative Energy Surge and Job Revisions Shock

On the small piece of debt, Alphabet insulates itself from future interest-rate cycles and the need to refinance debt at maturity.

PA Nvidia vs Walmart Shows Value Rotation Isn’t What You Think

Nvidia vs Walmart Shows Value Rotation Isn’t What You Think

For some reason, investors often assume that growth and value are mutually exclusive. They are not, as we will explain.

PA Golden Ratios, Fibonacci Spirals, and Strategic Trading Decisions

Golden Ratios, Fibonacci Spirals, and Strategic Trading Decisions

Before thinking we’ve lost our minds and are relying on biology or even worse, mysticism to predict stock prices, let us explain.

PA Doctor Copper Is Flashing a Warning—and It’s Not About Growth

Doctor Copper Is Flashing a Warning—and It’s Not About Growth

On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton.

PA Silver’s Parabolic Run Looks Familiar: Two Historical Surges—and How They Ended

Silver’s Parabolic Run Looks Familiar: Two Historical Surges—and How They Ended

Two similar price surges shown below to provide context for what may be occurring today and, importantly, for what might cause this bubble to pop tomorrow.

PA Debt, Data Centers, and AI: Why Oracle’s $10B Michigan Project Raises Market Concerns

Debt, Data Centers, and AI: Why Oracle’s $10B Michigan Project Raises Market Concerns

his planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under their Stargate AI infrastructure initiative.

PA A Third of U.S. Debt Comes Due Next Year: The Real Risk Isn’t Refinancing—It’s Fiscal Policy

A Third of U.S. Debt Comes Due Next Year: The Real Risk Isn’t Refinancing—It’s Fiscal Policy

Currently, investors and the Federal Reserve own 100% of the $10 trillion of Treasury debt that will mature next year.

PA Wall Street’s High-Risk ETF Gamble Gets Shut Down by the SEC

Wall Street’s High-Risk ETF Gamble Gets Shut Down by the SEC

Wall Street’s financial engineers thought they had found yet another way to turn financial markets into casinos.

PA The Fed’s New Era of Liquidity Control: What Investors Must Watch Now

The Fed’s New Era of Liquidity Control: What Investors Must Watch Now

Given the importance of liquidity to financial market performance, it is crucial to understand not only who supplies liquidity but also how they do so.

PA The AI Liquidity Crunch: Why Even OpenAI Needs a Backstop

The AI Liquidity Crunch: Why Even OpenAI Needs a Backstop

US government in backing or guaranteeing loans to OpenAI. Moreover, OpenAI’s need for such support underscores its burgeoning capital requirements.

PA Dow Theory vs. The Modern Market: Is the Transportation Lag a Warning Sign—or Just Noise?

Dow Theory vs. The Modern Market: Is the Transportation Lag a Warning Sign—or Just Noise?

We present two graphs and a comment that elicits Dow Theory and asks whether we should be concerned or if Dow Theory is an artifact of the past.

PA Why Today’s Record Valuations Might Not Be as Dangerous as They Look

Why Today’s Record Valuations Might Not Be as Dangerous as They Look

This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations.

PA The First Brands Bankruptcy: A Wake-up Call for Trade Finance and Wall Street

The First Brands Bankruptcy: A Wake-up Call for Trade Finance and Wall Street