Some say that the first session of the year foretells the entire year.
Others say that due to the January effect, people tend to buy back after tax-loss harvesting in December, and that stocks tend to rally over time, so one doesn’t cause the other. But still, if there’s a grain of truth in this, it looks like we’re in for a big decline in the precious metals market this year.
Gold made – probably final – attempt to move back above its October 2025 high, and it failed that one too.
And that’s an understatement. Gold reversed in a profound way, and so did silver.
The initial rally was erased.
The worst signal, though, came from the mining stocks.
Miners declined by 3% today, which followed the verification of the breakdown.
The GDXJ approached its October high, which held for now, but given this kind of relative weakness compared to gold, and given that gold already failed to get back above its October high, it looks like the GDXJ will invalidate its breakout any day (or hour) now.
It is notable that miners are declining visibly without the USD’s rally (which is likely coming) and with only a small move lower in the stock market. This is particularly bearish – it suggests that when both move more significantly, miners will respond in a massive way.
The CME margin hikes are unlikely to be ignored in the short term. My previous technical analysis, as well as the additional fundamental analysis of the silver market remains up-to-date.
Related: The Topping Signals Are In: What Gold, Silver, the Dollar, and Bitcoin Are Telling Us About 2026
